Eric Florack on October 16th, 2019

Rick Moran points to a report in Moodys, (via CNBC) that doesn’t bode well for Democrats:

The Moody model has been backtested to 1980 and was right each time — except for 2016 when it predicted a narrow Hillary Clinton win (who didn’t?).

The model shows the uphill climb Democrats have regardless of what current polls are saying about the race.


President Donald Trump looks likely to cruise to re-election next year under three different economic models Moody’s Analytics employed to gauge the 2020 race.

Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

Rick responds:

Democrats may be excited about 2020, as most polls have gauged, but if this impeachment nonsense keeps up, Republicans will be angry. All you have to do is look at the 2016 presidential election to see what an angry electorate can do.

Agreed, Rick.

Even as it stands now, the electorate has even more to be angry about, amazing enough, than it did after eight years of Obama.

Cautious optimism seems to be called for on this alone, but there’s another indicator, from Monica Showalter:

Not only does its moderate Democratic governor, John Bel Edwards, face a runoff, as noted here, but the state Senate has taken a supermajority. And a whole bunch of key state offices went squarely to Republicans. Funny how the press isn’t covering this much.

Not if you understand that the mainstream media is a subsidiary of the DNC.

Eric Florack on October 16th, 2019

Danny Ashman:

“LeBron James (2.8 GPA in high school) told Daryl Morey (MIT Graduate) that he’s uneducated”

He probably meant to say Morey hadn’t been re-educated.

davidl on October 16th, 2019

News from the Debacle in Dayton: from Frontpage:

As the evening wore on, Biden grew more incoherent, at one point saying he would “end Roe v. Wade” before correcting himself. His repetitions of “here’s the deal” and “come on” recalled his recent reference to a “record player.” On most issues, his fellow candidates did sound like a broken record.

Candidates touted the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, without any clear idea of how to pay for them. Warren swore that taxes would only go up on the wealthy. Tom Steyer urged the candidates to “talk about prosperity” and he claimed he could expose Trump as “a fraud and failure as a businessman.”

The ‘rats have a new leader, from Daily Wire:

Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren received the most speaking time at the latest Democratic debate Tuesday, but with her newfound frontrunner status, she was also forced to endure a litany of attacks from her opponents.

The pioneers leaders take the arrows, more arrows from Michael Goodwin, New York Post:

It was left to [Robert] Beto O’Rourke to identify what I regard as a key liability of Warren’s campaign, namely her obvious desire to use the power of the presidency to punish rather than help. There’s something stridently negative about that and I’m only surprised that O’Rourke was the one to point it out.

He began the sequence by saying she didn’t seem interested in “lifting people up.” Instead, he said, she is “more interested in being punitive and pitting one part of the country against another.”

Meanwhile back on the flip side, a ‘rat who on occasion will touch on sanity, video:

The other female ‘rats should not Gabbard’s let voice in. She far closer vocally to a leader like Margaret Thatcher than she is to the shrill Mrs. B.J. Clinton.

Of course, that and dollar fifty at McDonalds…..

Eric Florack on October 15th, 2019

Frankly I don’t think James O’Keefe gets nearly the credit he deserves. Jim Treacher this morning:

Via Project Veritas:

    • Cary Poarch, Who Works at CNN’s Washington DC Bureau, Says: “I Decided to Wear a Hidden Camera…to Expose the Bias”
    • Records Zucker’s 9AM Daily Rundown Calls
    • Zucker Emphatically States Fox News is “Beyond Destructive for America”
    • Zucker to Staffers: “Impeachment is the Story,” Ignore Other Stories
    • Employees Ordered by Zuckerto ‘Knock Off’ Their Friendliness Towards Lindsey Graham
    • Nick Neville, CNN Media Coordinator: “Jeff Zucker…has a Personal Vendetta Against Trump,” “…Then You Get on the 9AM Call and the Big Boss, Jeff Zucker, F**king Tells What to Do”
    • Neville: It’s About ‘Ratings,’ “…It’s, Like, They Pulled Names Out of a Hat and It’s Like We’re Watching the Gameshow Network”
    • CNN Floor Manager Mike Brevna: “It’s the Trump Network, Dog…They Sold Themselves to The Devil”
    • Brevna Recalls Colleagues ‘Sobbing,’ And Says The “Office Was Like a Funeral” After Trump Election Victory
    • CNN Media Coordinator, Christian Sierra, Confesses CNN Prepares ‘Softball Interviews’for Democrats Compared to Republicans, and Suggests “Anti-Trump Crusade” After 2016 Election
    • Top Network Executive David Chalian Says Republicans are ‘Delusional, Defiant, or Silent’ With Regards to Trump’s Impeachment Story
    • CNN Floor Director Hiram Gonzalez: “…We Created This Monster…Media Created the Trump Monster”

    My friends, This is CNN. This is precisely what it always has been.

    I say again, James O’Keefe doesn’t get nearly the credit he deserves. We already knew the bias was there. But you see, unlike CNN, we have people like Jmes O’Keefe who actually investigate and report on the facts.

    Hmmm. This poll shows up with Fox News’ name on it… and shortly after, Sheppard Smith is gone.

    Most Americans who support Trump found the Fox News poll to be unbelievable. As it turns out, the poll is not to be believed. What most Fox News supporters don’t know, is that the poll was conducted by Amanda Danielle Braun, a left-wing, LGBTQ radical activist, who was a regional organizing director, in Reading, Pa., for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. She also graduated from Hillary’s alma mater, Wellesley College.

    By the way the poll was weighted by 14 points in favor of Democrats. Funny how the internals got ignored by Smith.

    In other words, the poll is a fraud.

    I can’t help but wonder if this had something to do with Shepard Smith’s sudden and richly deserved departure.

    Eric Florack on October 12th, 2019

    That Shepard Smith wasn’t removed from his Fox news posting two years ago, much less within the last month, is an indication of the kind of patience the management at Fox had with the little twerp.

    His self-aggrandizing exit was peppered with laughable lines like:

    “Even in our currently polarized nation, it’s my hope that the facts will win the day, that the truth will always matter, that journalism and journalists will thrive,” he said

    The truth?

    Yeah, right.

    Shepard Smith had a questionable relationship with the truth during his tenure at Fox, which is why so few people will be mourning his departure. As an example of this, his promoting the Russia hoax.

    In truth, (yes, there’s that word again) Shepard Smith had absolutely no credibility whatsoever after latching onto that Russia hoax. He still has yet to admit what everyone else knows…. there’s nothing there. If anyone gave him any credibility before he went all in on that nonsense, they certainly do not now, with the way the investigation has been playing out. That demonstrated lack of credibility is only going to get worse as time goes on with the soon-to-be-released IG report, Attorney General Bill Barr’s investigations, etc.

    I have no doubt whatever that he will be welcomed as the conquering hero at CNN or MSNBC. (His non-competition clause notwithstanding.) It’ll be interesting to see how far left he tilts in those centers of left-wing lunacy which he so obviously admires.

    I have visions of him sometime around the year 2040 giving an update on MSNBC that they expect to have evidence of Russian collusion with the Trump team “any day, now.”

    Fortunately, that placement means that he will never again darken the majority of America’s TV screens.

    America is far better off for it.

    Eric Florack on October 11th, 2019

    Attention Jim Acosta:

    Let’s face it, Jimbo, a vice president’s job is to make the president look good. That’s his sole function. Obama being as bad a president as he was needed somebody who was uniquely qualified. Quid pro quo Joe was just that man.

    That is all.

    Eric Florack on October 10th, 2019

    I’m seeing several reports that China is losing close on $100MUSD per day because of the attacks on Saudi Arabia Oil Facilities, and the limits on Iran.

    Burning oil fields in Saudi Arabia resulting from an Iranian drone attack

    In terms of oil, it is China that benefits most from a stable middle East. When the recent attacks on the free flow of crude from the region started again in earnest, it was China, not the US, that suffered most… And that suffering continues.

    The US, meanwhile, continues to do well, thanks to fracking. (One can easily understand why the unamerican left is against fracking…)

    The movement by the president to withdraw our military from the region seems to have all this in mind. It has been kept stable, these last decades, by American blood and American treasure. Strategically, a bad situation to say nothing of the cost of lives and money. Pumping out own oil, rather than sacrificing our money and our military seems a far more viable solution, and has the added benefit of further limiting China, who has never been anything but a bad actor on the world stage.

    And yes, I hear some of you screaming about how we are deserting our allies. The Kurds, in particular. Did anyone really expect us to stay there forever?

    The NY Post yesterday, addressed this:

    “Over the last few days, a host of former Obama officials have been repeating this story, which is highly misleading, to say the least. Rice and her colleagues would have us believe that Team Obama created a highly effective plan for stabilizing the Middle East by working through groups like the YPG, and Trump, mercurial and impulsive, is throwing it all away by seeking a rapprochement with Ankara. That’s nonsense. In fact, the close relationship with the YPG was a quick fix that bequeathed to Trump profound strategic dilemmas. Trump inherited from Obama a dysfunctional strategy for countering ISIS, one that ensured ever-greater turmoil in the region and placed American forces in an impossible position.”

    As for the rest, when has Syria for example come down on our side of anything? For that matter, while Turkey was an ally years ago, does anyone supposed Edrogian would come down on our side of anything, including the Kurdish issue, either?

    If there’s anything in the way of evidence of this, I’m not seeing it.

    So ultimately the only thing that we were doing was spending our money and our military to keep things stable for people who hate us. Iran and China being chief among them.

    Why? How long were we expected to keep this up?

    And you know what? I’m old enough to remember when The Donkey club wanted us out of the middle East. Does anyone by chance remember chants of ” no blood for oil”?

    Eric Florack on October 10th, 2019

    Over at PJM, Charlie Martin observes:

    It seems to me — and this is just a plausible inference, I’m not asserting it’s the truth — it seems to me that the only people who would be “visibly shaken” by that would be someone who already has guilty knowledge of Crowdstrike, Burisma, or both.

    Now, look at the really just astonishing irregularity of the “impeachment inquiry”: not just refusing to take it to the floor of the House, but the secrecy, the selective cherry-picking of releases, and the plan to prevent Republican members — not to mention the Nation — from learning anything about either WB1 or WB2.

    I think the most plausible inference is that the whistleblowers are connected to Biden’s campaign, or to the DNC, and were shaken by the possibility of Biden and Crowdstrike being investigated because they know there is something there to be found.

    (Emphasis is mine.)

    Well, precisely. And this meshes very well indeed with my initial comments:

    It turns out Paul Pelosi, the Speaker’s son was also in the Ukraine at the time Quid pro quo Joe Biden’s kid was… We know Joe Biden threatened to Ukraines funding if they didn’t fire the prosecutor looking into Hunter Biden’s criminality. Joe Biden bragged about it. Now we see Pelosi acting to protect her kid from a corruption investigation. Clearly, someone does not want the Democrat/Ukrainian connection investigated. I can’t imagine why. 😒

    Of course one of the other names that came out in support of impeaching Trump at almost exactly the same time, was Mitt Romney… Who is, it turns out, also up to his armpits in Ukrainian corruption.

    It seems clear that they all started trying to impeach Trump just when the Ukrainian corruption came on the radar screen. They may well understand they’ll never get that nonsense through the Senate, but they clearly felt they needed a diversion, and a chance to shift blame. Certainly this bogus impeachment process serves both those purposes better than anything else they might have thought to cook up on the fly.

    The roaches are scrambling because somebody turned the light on. It’s as simple and direct as that. In the end that’s the only reason for the charade going on in DC just now.

    Eric Florack on October 9th, 2019

    I’m going to say this right up front:

    Hong Kong is territory that China has invaded.

    Similarly, China invaded Taiwan.

    They are not a part of China.

    China is deluding itself… And trying to force that delusion on everybody else in the world… Particularly, anybody who does business in China… A prominent example would be the NBA.

    Apparently, China doesn’t want anybody being critical, or even noticing the emperor’s New clothes.

    The immense blowback from Americans on the subject suggests that we have reached the international “enough” line with this nonsense.

    It it also suggests that Donald Trump is exactly on point, in the actions he is taking to disconnect our economy from that of the Chinese Communist Party.

    If the NBA wants to survive this in any fashion, they need to be telling the Chinese Communists on no uncertain terms “get lost”. No beating around the bush, here, and blessedly sure, no apologies. The Chinese need to be told in no uncertain terms to get their demands out of the sunshine.



    Now, about the illusion that there are more than two sexes being forced on us by our own government….


    Eric Florack on October 9th, 2019

    California speeds downhill… It’s come to this:

    Nearly 800,000 Pacific Gas and Electric customers are preparing for their power to be intentionally cut for what could be the largest deliberate power shut-off in California’s history.

    A Red Flag Warning is being issued over the next few days with strong winds expected to make the risk of wildfire extremely high.

    The outages are expected to start as early as Wednesday at midnight and could last until mid-day on Thursday. They may affect millions of people living in 34 counties.

    Via Ed Driscoll who says, correctly:

    I’m so old, I can remember when California was an aspirational place, and not a warning to the rest of America.

    Indeed…. let’s call this what it is:

    Every single one of California’s problems of late, including the Paradise and Camp fires (which this shutdown is obviously a reaction to) is directly attributable to governmental micro- mismanagement. Too many laws, too many regulations, not enough freedom and common sense.

    Eric Florack on October 8th, 2019

    From that bastion of right-wing philosophy, Politico:

    Bernie Sanders has been sidelined for nearly a week — after failing for almost three days to disclose that he had a heart attack. It’s unclear when the 78-year-old senator will return to the stump. His campaign has yet to divulge the severity of his heart attack.

    And that sequence of events unfolded as he’s been eclipsed in the polls by the other progressive icon in the race, Elizabeth Warren.

    It’s time for a little honesty here.

    Bernie Sanders had absolutely no chance of winning the nomination, even less chance of winning in the general. It’s now down to the point where I doubt he’s even going to win re-election to his senate seat.

    That was absent the heart attack.

    One has to wonder if the heart attack wasn’t contracted as a graceful way of bowing out of the race.

    Meanwhile, to what Venezuelan hospital should I be sending flowers?

    Oh, wait. You say he didn’t avail himself of the great medical Care in a socialist country?

    Can you imagine that Donald Trump wasn’t going to chew him up and spit him out on the Vermont snow, on that point alone?

    Eric Florack on October 7th, 2019

    So, the Trump Administration has decided that a prerequisite for obtaining a visa to enter the country is purchasing health insurance.

    This of course puts us in the strange situation of watching the very same people who created the individual Healthcare mandate, protesting what amounts to an individual Healthcare mandate on people wanting visas. Personally I’m making popcorn.
    And interestingly enough those places giving free healthcare to illegal aliens… Places like California… Are basically having their applecart overturned. Clearly, they figured they’d have a fresh new crop of democratic voters, streaming over the border every cycle.

    Eric Florack on October 7th, 2019

    I’m very happy to pass along news of a new venture by my good buddy Matt Margolis…

    Editorial cartoons.

    Kyle Bennett, via Zuckerbook:

    “Socialism is the flat earth of economics.”

    Indeed so, and never in the history of economics has that statement of Kyle’s been more clear, I think, than the last few years, as well as the Reagan years. In both situations, the misbegotten idea that the economy could be best represented by a pie graph, was completely blown out of the water. (Pardon me mixing metaphors.)

    The biggest problem with socialism in the economic sense is that it has never understood that wealth can (and ultimately needs to) be created, not simply redistributed. The difference between those two approaches, was demonstrated quite clearly between Obama and Trump, Carter and Reagan.

    Am I suggesting Trump is the next Reagan? No, I still have serious issues with Donald Trump. However, at least, he like Reagan, understands that socialism in all its forms is nothing more than a poison pill.

    Apparently, the electorate has begun to figure this out too, including a lot of Democrats.

    By the reports I’ve seen, Trump 20/20 has successfully raised (so far) a record $125 million in this last quarter alone, while the Democrats still owe more money than they have been successful in raising.

    I personally believe that what we saw in the 2016 election was the silent majority stepping forward I believe that that was crucial to the defeat of Hillary Clinton. That was enough to elect Trump, last time.

    This ime, with the economy running the economy running the way it’s been running the last 3 years, and the spectacle that the Democrats have been making of themselves for those same three years, the idea that the people willing to vote Democrat has grown, is simply not credible. That’s before we even we get into the Congressional races.

    About that, there there are 30 different Democrats in the lower house up for reelection in districts that Donald Trump won in 2016.

    Two ideas spring from this.

    The first, Democrats being able to hang on to the lower house in 2020 is looking increasingly remote.

    Secondly, it seems impossible to me that those Democrats don’t understand their vulnerability. They see clearly an actual vote for Trump impeachment, is a suicide vote. That, in turn, partially explains the Democrats not wanting take an actual impeachment vote…  (That and such a vote would give Senate Republicans the power of subpeona) … And instead, they’re perpetrating this farce that they are chasing now.

    If I recall, it was one of Bill Clinton’s advisors who glibly informed us “it’s the economy, stupid”. It seems to me that the implications of that advice are overwhelming for the outcome of November, 2020.