Vote fraud to the side for a moment, you really have to wonder if there’s not at least a certain amount of fraud going on with the pollsters, as well. Fellow Swamp Stomper, Sister Toldjah [1]
This morning, I logged in to see that a WaPo/ABC poll [2]has Obama up by 9 points over Mc and a large part of Obama’s lead has to do with the economy. Considering what we know about where a lot of the blame goes [3] for the current economic state we’re in, my first thought was, “How the hell can people trust Democrats to get us out of a mess they enabled?” Then I read AJ Strata’s post [4] where he took a look at the party breakdown, and it became clear:
[Their] straight party sample breaks down 38% Dem, 28% Rep and 29% Ind. When Indies are asked which way they lean the sample goes 54% Dem, 38% Rep and 7% Ind.
Is anyone surprised with a 54(D) – 38(R) sample the result is 52(D) – 43(R) race? Not me.
Moral of the story? Always check the fine print of a poll before banging your head against a wall.
Well, exactly. I’ll point out that the last several cycles the polling data has heavily leaned Democrat… only to make a sudden and pronounced rightward shift in the last days before the election. this was particularly true for Bush 41, as an example. Mark Steyn agrees [5]:
I dunno about a nine-point lead, Kathryn, but clearly the Obama campaign self-destruct effort managed to stall during Bailout Week.
Well as to that, I’m not sure that the most recent destructive battling between Obama and Biden have had the chance to sink in to the electorate just yet. If we’re to take the timing of the convention bounces for each party, we may well assume there to be a two week lag between each action and it’s Newtonian response.