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Political Winds?

As those who can remember back to the 2006 elections realize, the political winds have been favoring the democrats of late. If you take all the ‘generic congressional polls [1]‘ from April of 2005 through today, you get the democrats at 48.9% and the republicans at 37.9%. If you just take the last two weeks, you see that the political winds are statistically unchanged at 48.7% for the democrats and 37.3% for the republicans.

 

But what is interesting is to compare those political winds with the McCain vs Obama match up [2]. There we see that Obama has a +2.5% margin. Why is Obama’s numbers so far behind the generic political wind? Obviously some of that is the abstract vs the real. Republicans tend to do batter with actual names on the polls than just the generic question. But it also has to do with the reality of who Obama is that is slowly dawning on America.

 

Rasmussen [3] has McCain holding a statistically insignificant 1% lead on their daily tracking poll, 47% to 46% with leaners. But look at the undercard questions.

Favorability

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

This puts McCain ahead in all categories. Obama is coming down to earth on the likability quotient. And he is doing that against McCain who isn’t the poster child for affability. What is most important is the fight in the venter where McCain leads Obama by a statistically significant margin of 61% to 47% among unaffiliated voters.

Liberal vs Conservative

Sixty percent (60%) of voters now see Obama as politically liberal while 65% see McCain as politically conservative. Among liberals, 71% see Obama as one of them, but just 18% of liberals see Obama as Very Liberal. Among conservatives, 71% say McCain is also a conservative, including 38% who say he is Very Conservative. Thirty-five percent (35%) of politically moderate voters say that McCain is politically moderate and 33% say the same of Obama. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Democrats see McCain as conservative while 69% of Republicans see Obama as liberal.

They are tied on their base seeing them as ‘one of them’. I ponder whether the difference in the ‘very’ designation reflects more the far left tilt of those who consider themselves as liberal or if Obama’s recent flip-flops are disquieting the troops? Those in the middle see both the same way on the political divide.

Fair vs unfair

Obama’s attempts to play the race card aren’t working in the general election.

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent.

Now make no mistake, the political winds still favor Obama. The electoral college would have Obama in the White House if the election were held today. But the election isn’t being held today. And the cracks in the Obama facade are starting to widen.