Interesting poll from CNN this morning [1]. It seems that John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in the polling numbers;
In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted entirely after Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee, he leads his Republican counterpart 49 to 46 percent among registered voters — a statistical tie, given the question’s 3 point margin of error.
The poll is the first conducted entirely after Obama became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
McCain and Obama aren’t alone: independent candidate Ralph Nader and Republican-turned-Libertarian Bob Barr are both vying with the two major-party candidates for independent voters.
But at this point, it looks unlikely either will play a spoiler role: the margin between Obama and McCain is virtually unchanged, with the Illinois senator leading 47 to 43 percent. Nader pulls in 6 percent, and Barr 2.
This is interesting because it was just last week that Obama had several points worth of bounce out of finally getting over the top in delegate numbers. Now, all of a sudden, CNN can’t be bothered to mention this fact. I also find the comment of Bob Barr and Ralph Nader not playing a significant role of interest, given the closeness of the last several cycles. Seems to me, that a point or two either way is all that would be needed for one of them to play spoiler.
[2]
By the same token, then, this is also important:
A hypothetical Obama/Clinton ticket would currently get 52 percent, compared to 46 percent for a hypothetical McCain/Romney ticket. And if she’s not on the ticket? Sixty percent of her Democratic supporters would vote for Obama, 17 percent would vote for McCain, and 22 percent say they would stay at home in November and not vote for anyone.
(Pic Credit: UglyDemocrats.com) [3]
That, in fact, is the most important marker of the selection thus far. It seems clear that if Obama has any shot at winning this election, it’ll be because the Clintons are playing some role that he sets, and it will have to be a prominent role. Understandably, he is reluctant to do that, for all the reasons that have been mentioned here and elsewhere. Of course, given that CNN has been in the pocket for Hillary Clinton for some time now, they’ve failed to make mention of the reverse also be true; that being that there are a number of people who would withdraw from voting in this race, if Hillary Clinton were involved in a hypothetical Obama administration.
No matter which way that goes. He’s going to cost himself some substantial amount of voters. Mind you, I am not convinced we got all the factors in just yet. but barring some kind of major bombshell. Between now and November, I can’t imagine something that would swing 20 points off the Democrat vote, as this situation looks to do.