Fukuyama, in the LAT [1] today, argues, ‘so what if Iraq ends up in a civil war’?
An intensifying civil war will be a tragedy for Iraq, but it is not the worst outcome from a U.S. standpoint to have a number of bitterly anti-American groups duking it out among themselves.
Civil wars eventually come to an end when one side wins (unlikely, in this case) or when the parties exhaust themselves and drop their maximalist aims.
Look, let’s cut to the chase, here. I have no patience for this kind of nonsense. So I will call it directly what it is; Fukuyama is a blithering idiot. I’ve always thought so, and this confirms it.
First of all if we pull out of Iraq just now, a civil war is decidedly what we will not have. A civil war by definition is an internal struggle. Should we remove ourselves from the process, Syria and Iran will become immediately involved which by definition makes it a a regional struggle. A regional struggle, wherein the entire region, and thereby the world ends up worse off.
Secondly, the likelihood of the combatants exhausting themselves and dropping their arms in the process, seems remote given the history of the region. The only time that there’s been peace in the region since the fourteen hundreds, has been when one power holds sway.
Thirdly, Even there, there’s problems; it seems to me that we came to a similar conclusion twenty and of the Vietnam era, and our reliance on the Civil War eventually settling itself, the eventual spread of communism, and the death of millions at the hands of Pol Pot. Hardly a desirable outcome.
And, finally, does anybody are really consider that we won’t be hearing from al-Qaida that they have won over the hidden Americans? With that victory in hand, do you not think that they would be picking new, more vulnerable targets , to say nothing of more valuable?
What Fukuyama proposes here, IS in fact the worst of all possible scenarios. To which, I must admit containing no surprise whatsoever.
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And Derb; To answer your question [2], there is no difference. Which is why I gave exactly the same answer to YOU when you first made a similar statement about a year back. Any questions, class?