Over at National Review online, Rich Lowry puts together is good analysis [1] of what’s happening on the ground as I have seen yet:
Maybe the Trump campaign will radically improve its delegate-selection game or perhaps Cruz hurts himself in some fundamental way in coming weeks, but barring those things or some unforeseen event, it is going to be a Cruz-friendly crowd on the floor of the Republican convention in July. It is a mistake to think of delegates as insiders as we usually think of the term. Yes, some of them are state party officials, but many more of them are activists. Very few of them will be naturally inclined to share the hostility to Cruz of Washington and certain parts of the donor class. On top of this, the Cruz campaign is out there doing all it can to make sure supporters are selected as delegates. This is why if Trump is a good distance away from 1,237 — say, short 50 delegates or more (100 would be safer) — you have to favor Cruz at a convention.
The indications I’m seeing now suggests it isn’t even going to be that close. For all of this whining and carrying on that the Trumpkins are treating us to about how they’re going to shove Romney or John Kasich, Jeb or somebody down our throats again, the fact of the matter is there’s no way that’s going to happen. Slow the GOP maybe, but it’s not suicidal.
And before you start in about how NR is the house organ for the GOP, and that Rich is swinging the bat for Ted Cruz, let me set you straight. The GOP establishment is scared to death of Ted Cruz and rightly so. Moreover, Rich Lowry the last I looked was no major fan of Ted Cruz, either.
Ted Cruz will be the nominee.