Doug Hoffman narrowly lost the vote in NY23 last night, but that is almost inconsequential to the larger issues surrounding this election.

  • First off, let’s make note of the fact that Owens bought his way into the race with 86% of his cash coming from outside NY23. Or is it 95%? That is not a situation that Democrats  are going to be able to maintain going into the midterms.  Democrats could afford to pour money into NY23 from outside the district, because there wasn’t very many other districts that were in play.  Come  midterms, that all changes.  So the prognosis for the future is bleak at best for Democrats.
  • Secondly,  as of this writing (around 3am Eastern) the totals seem to be settling into a pattern of a 3% difference between Owens and Hoffman,, and 6% of the vote going for Scozzafava. Yes, I know Scozzafava wasn’t really running, but her late withdrawal left her name on the ballot, and 6 % of the voters there apparently either making a statement, or voting out of straight line habit or sheer idiocy,  voted for her. Let’s assume half those voters, had they understood the situation, would have voted for Hoffman, being the more conservative candidate.  That alone would create a tie situation between Hoffman and Owens.
  • The real victory here belongs to the conservatives who have been trying fruitlessly to send a message to the GOP ‘establishment’ since Reagan left the stage: “Pay attention to us, because conservatives are the heart and soul of the party”.That was, in fact, the message of the 2008 election, when so many conservatives sat on their hands, instead of voting for someone who decidedly does not meet the requirement for the title “Conservative”… John McCain, and that was the message sent yet again up in Northern NY when Republicans there rejected the “liberal lite” positions of Dede Scozzafava in such numbers that the GOP leadership was forced to act. In the case of NY23, the perception of the GOP rank and file was then reinforced as Scozzafava endorsed the Democrat in the race.

I quote once again, the clip that DavidL put up last night:

Rush Limbaugh

Rush Limbaugh

Scozzafava has screwed every RINO in the coun — we can say that she’s guilty of widespread bestiality. She has screwed every RINO in the country. Everyone can see just see how phony and dangerous they are. You know, 2010 might be a nightmare for PETA. Two animals may become extinct; RINOs and Blue Dog Democrats. Pelosi’s gonna kill off the Blue Dogs, and the conservatives are gonna finally get rid of RINOs. The American people have had enough.

That is the real victory here.  The stage is now set for the party to move back to the right and to dump the RINOs.  The idea that there will not be enough Democrat thumbs to keep the dike from leaking in 2010, means that come 2010 the dam will burst wide open on the Democrats… IF… and IF I say, and ONLY if… the GOP establishment gets out of the way and follows the dictates of the GOP rank and file.

Hoffman winning in NY23 would have been icing on the cake. As it is, I’ll settle for what we got… the ground moving underneath the GOP establishment at long last. The big question now is how the establishment will respond. The party’s survival depends, I think, on their going with the will of the GOP rank and file. The movement is already marching. It can be a  figurative parade the Establishment leads, or it can be a figurative lynch mob.

Your Move, GOP establishment.

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