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Bithead Reads the Numbers And the Future

James Joyner at OTB mentions the current reading at Electoral-vote.com [1] and says:

If the election were held today, Barack Obama would cruise to victory with 317 Electoral Votes to John McCain’s 194, according to projections tabulated by Electoral-Vote.com [1]. Florida, with its 27 electors, is too close to call.  Again.

Then again, on this day in 2004 [2], John Kerry was leading President Bush 285 to 249 and had slight leads in both Florida and Ohio. As you may recall, it didn’t turn out that way.

It’s clear to me that the relative silence of John McCain these last several months is reflected in these numbers. However, as has been demonstrated in elections past, and the trick here is to peak at the right time.

The huge amount of fundraising going on within the Republican Party  just now, (We mentioned here at BitsBlog yesterday) is going to help McCain along.

However, fundraising alone, does not a successful campaign make. THere needs to be an issue…. and the biggest issue facing families just now, indeed facing us all, and that has dropped into John McCain’s lap, is the entire argument surrounding energy, specifically oil, and the price at the pump. McCain has shown an ability to react to reality in a way that Obama has shown an inability in that area. I think to his detriment, McCain is still sending mixed messages on that front, vis-à-vis ANWR, but on the whole McCain owns that issue. Obama and the Democrat party find themselves on the wrong side of that issue. If they make any reactive move to at all, anything they do will now be seen as “me, too”. The effect of this issue cannot be overstated; even 64% of Democrats according to recent polls want more domestic drilling.

In the end, Americans are going to vote their wallets. Even the poor, who are particularly hard hit by the current high prices of oil caused by the mismanagement of our energy resources in the name of ‘the environment’. Come election time, people will remember who was responsible with their micro-mis-mangement for ruining a summer vacation, and they will remember come November who it was who doubled the price of heating oil, far more easily than they will remember who it was who saved the snail darter.

All of this places Obama in some very serious trouble, this summer.