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Nightly Ramble: Predicting the Unpredictable And Reaction to It, More

  • How does one prepare for the unexpected, which is by definition, unpredictable? Apparently, you don’t. Chuck Simmins [1] makes mention of a WMD course that was less than successful. Sounds rather like a problem with the teacher, to me, but then this is NY state, where idiocy knows no bounds.
  • Saw a hybrid camping trailer, heading out, this morning. Loaded to the gills it was, and by the way it was going, I’d say it was headed for the north country. All I could think of was, maybe if I followed them, they’d keep me.  Been a while since I’ve had a decent vacation. the weekend stuff we’ve been doing for a few years is great but it’s no substitute for taking a week or two and hitting the road. This morning put an exclamation point on all of that for me.
  • Speaking of the trailer, no, I’ve still not gotten it ready, though it looks like I should be able to this week. Gotta do the plumbing, the tires… the wheel bearings ought be OK, we didn’t go out much last year.  roof is OK, the awning needs cleaning but is OK otherwise. The TV Antenna need fixing; the crankup isn’t working well.  Not taht we watch much TV, but the scanner we use to listen to the railroads in the area works pretty well on it; it’d be nice to have it back again.
  • Joyner remarks yesterday about Bloggers as opinion leaders [2]. I tell him:

    What we have here is a situation where just being a blogger, of itself isn’t all that influential, unless that status is used in distributing some truth or another that isn’t available elsewhere. Which would seem to suggest that those who read blogs are more discerning than most.

    And that’s really the story, here. I’ve been convinced for some time that the readers we have here… the regulars particularly, are among the best around.

  • Many thanks to McQ at Q&O for his backlink [3] to the Books for Soliders [4]post. I owe you one, Bruce.
  • Yes, I’m watching the predictions for $200/bbl oil [5]. Sorry, I’m not buying. You shouldn’t, either.  We’ve seen this before with other commodities at the end of a bubble. These noises are brokers trying to hype casual investors in to buy up what the more professional speculators have bought, so the pros don’t take a bath when the bubble breaks which it will do in a cuple months… possibly less.  We saw this with Copper, not long ago, now.  Look, the unemployment situation isn’t nearly as bad as was predicted, the dollar’s fall has slowed if not outright stopped, the credit crunch has eased, the sub-prime mess ended up affecting less than the ‘experts’ figured, people are starting to take advantage of the lower prices and rates and have begun buying houses again… and that financial situation is what started the mess with oil in the first place. As I’ve been saying for months, now, the current oil price situation is not a supply issue.  This bubble is about to break, and we’re pretty much on schedule for a full meltdown on this nonsense by midsummer… just as I predicted. Woe to them in commodities, at that stage.
  • The Anti-war BS simply isn’t selling anymore. [6] Big shock, huh? this does NOT bode well for Democrats who have been using the war as a political prop.
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