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Democrat Defectors: We’ve Seen This Before, in Reverse

A note from Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal gives us some indication of those numbers I mentioned yesterdayl, about hom many Democrats would vote McCain, if their boy didn’t win. (Yes, I mean Hillary, too)

Some Context on the Democratic Defectors [1]

Brian Schaffner provides some helpful context [2] for the Gallup “Democratic defector” results that we linked to earlier today. He notes a Pew Research Center survey [3] from March 2000 that suggested similar fallout for George W. Bush as a result of his primary against John McCain.

Here are the key passages from the Pew report, starting with the lead paragraph:

The presidential primary season may prove to be a decisive factor in Campaign 2000, not only for who won, but for the way the winners emerged from the process in the eyes of the voters. Al Gore was clearly helped, and George W. Bush was just as clearly hurt. The vice president has improved his personal image, while making gains among two key groups whose support had eluded him last year, independents and men. In contrast, many people have come to dislike Bush personally, especially former supporters of John McCain. As a consequence, the Texas governor now trails Gore for the first time in a nationwide Pew Research Center survey, by 49%-43%….

Later, the report turned to the impact of the primaries:

Primaries Costly for Bush

Moreover, Gore leads Bush by a 51%-44% margin among voters who say they backed McCain during the primary process.(1) These McCain supporters are especially vocal critics of Bush as a person — nearly half (48%) of those who support Gore point to Bush’s personality as the thing they like least about him.[NOTE 1: Unless otherwise noted, former McCain and Bradley backers/supporters are those who say they strongly supported McCain/Bradley for their parties’ nomination.]

But Gore’s most important gains from supporters of McCain and Bradley come among independents who now disproportionately favor the vice president. In contrast, the party regulars have largely returned to the fold, with Republicans supporting Bush and Democrats supporting Gore.

So, if past be prologue,  we’ll see this swing to McCain not only remain, but grow… and the independents are what will make the difference. As I keep saying, it’s early, yet, but it was then, too.

Mind, I’m saying all of this without making a pronouncement about the relative worth of McCain in terms of policy. But obviously, if getting elected is the goal, as opposed to actually implementing conservative policy, McCain  seems to have an edge, here.