Around 20% of Democrats Will Vote McCain If Their Candidate Loses the Nomination

A not unexpected development, from Gallup, whose Frank Newport says:

A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.

The numbers are a litle asymmetrical. The number of Hillary Clinton Supporters who would vote for McCain over Obama in the general election, comes out at  28%. The number of Obama supporters who would vote McCain over Clinton, on the other hand comes out at 19%.

The report concludes that:

…the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November’s election. A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.

First off, It’s hard to judge how accurate these poll data will be, in the end, given it’s early in the season to be making these kind of projections.  In each case, though, they’re quite a bit higher than in previous cycles, at the same relative time frame.

That said however I think Newport misreads the cause vs the effect. The Nomination fight isn’t causing the negative effects for the Democrats, it’s simply a reflection of a deep division that already existed, since 2000, and has been accelerated by MoveOn, and so on. So too, are the candidates themselves, a reflection of this deep factional division. Think of it this way; Does anyone think that a quick end to this nomination fight will end the underlying split?

I certainly don’t. Nor, apparently, do the people polled, if I’m reading this report correctly.

Addendum: (David L)

The grand conspiracy to which Chris Matthews alluded, between Rush Limbaugh and Mrs. Clinton appears to be working.    Please don’t stop slinging the mud.

Of course some of the ‘rats will drift back to the party’s nominee.  However the dissatisfaction among independents has be even higher.   That is the real story.