Was installing a new screen in my Palm Pilot, tonight. While working, I had a chance to mentally break down each candidate with respect to Iowa.
Some notes in no particular Order:
Mike Huckabee;
Huckabee did about as well as I expected. Iowa is a place where the Evangelical Christian band does pretty well, and Huckabee gained by this. This was not a particularly cynical action, he genuinely subscribes to the brand, as I perceive it, as do a lot of Iowans… as The Conservative Reader will likely tell you when asked. But hiow will this play for the rest of the race is unclear at best.
Iowa is a place with a cultural value structure that is increasingly unique in today’s America. (We’ll get into the question of that being a good thing or bad at another time) Thing is, I don’t see Huckabee successfully playing the “Evengelical Christian” brand as successfully in New Hampshire as he did in Iowa. As such, his momentum, (If there is such a thing in primaries, anymore) is lost after Iowa. He may be able to pick up some of the breadbasket states later in the season, but this is his high water mark in terms of picking up delegates, I think.
If there’s one thing that annoys me, one thing I can’t make much sense out of, it’s how the cultural conservatives of Iowa can fall in line behind his campaign and scream he’s another Ronald Reagan. Sorry, I figure anyone who gets the endorsement of the NEA and other teacher’s unions isn’t a conservative. Sorry, that’s not the reincarnation of Reagan… It’s not even a conservative of any stripe. Rather, that’s the reincarnation of Jimmy Carter.
Mitt Romney :
Romney did better than I expected. The cultural discussion in Iowa has much to add to the Romney showing… That’s a complex statement because some of those influences are conflicting. On the one hand, Romney doubtless got some sympathy in Iowa, a state whose people pretty much identify with people of faith… of any stripe. That Romney did as well as he did suggests there’s not enough resistance to that faith being Mormon to account for his second place finish. One gets the impressions watching the blogs and some of the discussion groups I monitor, that the real cultural issue with Romney for a lot of Iowans was not his Mormonism, but his take on abortion.
On the non-cultural side, his governmental spending habits caused him some problems, in Iowa too.
New Hampshire will play less heavily on all those issues… he’ll get less resistance on Abortion and yet more resistance on his public pronouncements of faith exactly the opposite of the reaction in Iowa. The big question mark here, is how his public pronouncements of faith will play in New Hampshire. I wonder, too, how his being Governor of a neighboring state will play… will it help, or hurt? Hard to say from here.
In terms of total delegate count, he may be playing the correct line. If he’s played the correct line and places at least second in NH, he’ll be formidable for the remainder of the cycle.
John McCain :
McCain’s showing in Iowa is a bit of a surprise. He’s in a better position, perhaps, than Huckabee and Romney going into New Hampshire, given his position in that state, already. He also is no Reagan and certainly no conservative, so his showing was something of a surprise, given the politics out there. Only thing I can think of is they’re working against electability issues we’re not being told about.
Fred Thompson :
He did far better than the claims he was going to drop out were suggesting he would. He’s still very much in the hunt, here, and that alone is a momentum builder. I think we’re going to see him coming on stronger in the New Hampshire race and beyond; A sting in the ass is a motivation few can ignore,a nd given his past political fights, it’s a situation he does best in.
Ron Paul :
The resident Looney was spot on with what was expected. And granted, he was within a point or two of both McCain and Thompson… but both of those improved their situation from what was expected. The old saying applies, here… it’s not where you’re at but where you’re going. Paul ain’t going anywhere.
Rudy Giuliani :
Rudy got a mere 4%, but he pretty much ignored Iowa, so they pretty uch ignored him. I’m not convinced that the 4% he got means much to the nomination, overall. I think it was a stupid move to ignore Iowa as he did, but I can understand why he did… he’s looking at the evangelical base out there and the objections to his support for ‘sanctuary cities’ and recognizing he’s not going to do well.
We’ll look at the Democrats tomorrow. I’ve got a server to build before I hit the sack.