Newsflash: The Pollsters Don’t Know How This is Going to Turn Out

It’s New Year’s Day, and I’ve got a day off.

I’m watching a huge orgasm in non-coverage occurring in the primary states this morning, particularly Iowa. in watching all of this nonsense the last couple of days I am reminded once again that the only tool that we have to analyze any of these happenings is the output of the pollster.  The bottom line, however, is that nobody in the realm of polling really understands what’s going on in this primary, nor do they understand how it’s going to turn out.

The Punditariat has been working overtime, the last several months, breaking down polls and trying to attribute even the most minute of swings to this statement or that from those running, or this happening or that from the real world… such as our starting to win in Iraq, or various financial stimuli, or this person or that making a fool of themselves or dying. (Alas, to some degree, BitsBlog included)

And in the end, we are no closer to understanding the outcome of all of this, than we were several months gone.  In typical fashion, we find ourselves in a situation of watching the candidates numbers edge ever closer together.  Thus revealing the fact that the pollsters never really did have an idea of what was going on, after all, and raising the question whether or not the numbers were ever quite so separated as they first showed us.

CNN, for example. after months of giving us numbers and analysis and timetables and pretty charts and scandal after scandal, gaffe after gaffe, attack and retreat, they now say:

DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) — With two days to go until the Iowa caucuses, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll out Tuesday shows both the Democratic and Republican presidential nomination races tied at the top.

But with a quarter of all Democratic voters and nearly half of all Republican voters still making up their minds at this late stage, almost anything can happen

Limbaugh’s been telling us for months that none of this matters until the vote actually happens. I”ve been saying that before the vote happens it’s all just positioning and stroking of egos.  We’re both right.  (One can better understand why Fred Thompson wasn’t too interested in being a part of all that. It’s a supremely phony, and frustrating experience to those not geared toward dealing in electoral fantasy.

In the end, the rule long established in the NFL about .”Any given Sunday” applies.  That’s why they actually run horse races as opposed to simply going on the horses record of wins and losses in calculating a victory or defeat.

Not that it’s going to mean a great deal more to us once those numbers are turned in from Iowa and New Hampshire; anyone who ends up anywhere in the top 10, in each party is going to claim victory.

One might get the impression on reading all of this that I’m cynically saying nothing at all. That assessment isn’t accurate on all points, but it’s close enough to get by with. Here’s the point, though; all of the expert analysis, all of the high-priced promotion, don’t amount to a full bag of guinea pig pellets.

Think about this; let’s say that none of the people in question actually fares well in the actual voting in the primary states.  Do you honestly think that all of these polling sources, and all of the talking heads are going to say “Gee, I guess we blew that”, and remain closed mouthed for the rest of the election seaason? I don’t think so either.

That’s why we’ve been so closed mouthed, about making predictions based on polling data, here at BitsBlog.  It’s true, we have made some statements here, which suggested that this candidate or that was burned toast.  Easy pickings, you might say…  but anyone who is still anywhere within the top 10, has a chance of winning the nomination, for each party. That’s the cold hard fact.

I say all of this to point two things that you need to know, as we go through this election season…

1: The race isn’t won until they’ve actually run it.

2: Who actually wins those races, comes down to you and I.

The primaries are a good time to listen to the individual candidates, and truly evaluate their ideas and ideals as they express them.  Think of it as a shopping trip.  We’re shopping for leadership.  I have no reservations whatever about evaluation about ideas, here. That’s what this blog’s focus has always been when we talk about political events. It is forever about the ideas. We have given approval or disapproval (the latter often enough in the form of scorn, or ridicule) about ideas expressed by the candidates… (or anyone else, for that matter) But never have we considered such ideas as filtered through polling data, for the reason I’ve been describing to you; the polling data in the end is meaningless.

You shouldn’t either.

(BBCT: Memeorandum for the CNN link)