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The Crystal Ball And Hillary Clinton. 

Dan Riehl [1] observes:

The DesMoines Register discusses the pros and cons of Bill Clinton’s role in Hillary’s campaign [2]. What Brazile alludes to warrants fleshing out. It may set the stage for some real fun, provided Hillary gains the nomination.

“I think it’s going to come down to: Do you really want Bill Clinton back in the White House?” said Donna Brazile, who ran Democrat Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign.

Held at arm’s length by Gore in 2000 and embraced by the Democratic field in 2004, Bill Clinton’s record is the subject of both credit and critique in the 2008 campaign.

Helping Hillary in the Democrat Primary is one thing. However, Brazile knows, because she obviously saw the Gore polling, that those polls told Gore to stay away from Bill Clinton. Heck, he picked Lieberman, the first and one of only a few Democrats to denounce then President Clinton on the Senate floor, as his VP.

Well, I’m not sure this affects anything but the short term.  While it’s true that the centrists, and independents were steering clear of the Clintons and what was oozing down their legacy, back in 00, the hard core Democrats were not.  It’s the hardcore Democrat you have to convince, to attain a nomination.

So what this really boils down to is not a question of whether not she’s going to make the nomination; (she will.) The question becomes whether not she’s going to be electable to the general voting public; (she won’t be). That’s true, even if, as Dan suggests, Hillary ends up shoving Bill under the bus, as seems likely, past the primary hurdle.

The sharper among you will wonder why I’m even bothering to mention this, given that will turn some Democrat primary voters off of voting for HRC in the first place.

Untrue.  You’re making an unwarranted assumption… that the Democrat voter is at all worried about their choice not actually being electable.  To that point, I gave you George McGovern, and Jimmy Carter as a second termer. I give you Michael Dukakis.  I give you Walter Mondale.  And so, here’s the quick version of what happens to Democrats after the nomination:

drain.jpg [3]

Any questions?