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Pakistan’s Emergency

By now, just about everyone is all over this Musharraf thing.

Perhaps it’s as well that I point you toward Memeorandum for the latest. Particularly from there, I’m finding The Corner [1] to be useful. Also, Michelle [2] is on top of this, too.

But one article I will point you to is at Q&O [3] where Bruce says:

In reality, it seems like an extreme way to deal with a Supreme Court Musharraf [4] disagrees with:

He accused the country’s Supreme Court of releasing 61 men who he said were under investigation for terrorist activities. “Judicial activism,” he said, had demoralized the security forces, hurt the fight against terrorism and slowed the spread of democracy. “Obstacles are being created in the way of democratic process,” he said, “I think for vested, personal interests, against the interest of the country.”

The dispute apparently goes back a few months:

“This is the first time Musharraf has brought in military rule to sustain himself in power,” he said. “He felt threatened by the Supreme Court.”

Mr. Chaudhry, the former chief justice, has been the focal point of the opposition to General Musharraf since the president fired him in March. With support from lawyers, judges and a wide public following, Mr. Chaudhry led a street-style political campaign against his summary firing that helped fuel popular sentiment against General Musharraf.

The Supreme Court reinstated Mr. Chaudhry this summer, and in September it ruled in favor of General Musharraf, saying he could run for re-election while still in uniform.

Hardly the portrait of a “Constitutional” ruler, but then it would be hard to argue that a guy who took over the country in a bloodless coup in 1999 was particularly concerned about the Constitution.

UPDATE: Not good.  Not good at all [5]:

Pakistan’s government on Sunday continued a nationwide crackdown on the political opposition, the media and the courts, one day after President Pervez Musharraf imposed emergency rule and suspended the constitution in a bid to save his job.

Police throughout the country raided the homes of opposition party leaders and activists, arresting hundreds. Top lawyers were also taken into custody, and at the offices of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan in the eastern city of Lahore, 70 activists were detained. Journalists covering the raid had their equipment confiscated by police, and were ordered off the premises.

The international advocacy group Human Rights Watch issued a statement condemning the move as “an appalling attack on human rights defenders.”

Up to 500 opposition activists had been arrested in the last 24 hours, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said Sunday.

Aziz said the extraordinary measures would remain in place “as long as it is necessary.” Aziz said parliamentary elections could be postponed up to a year, but no decision has been made regarding a delay.

Those actions and statements really up the ante. They go beyond a possible internal dispute and are fairly significant signals that Musharraf is headed towards establishing completely totalitarian rule. Things could get ugly quickly.

Question: Where’s the military on all of this?

I told him, just now:

The best course, it would appear, is to sit quietly and watch, and be ready to support Musharraf at need.

Let’s remember what Musharraf is up against… something like 50% of the people in his country support Usama Bin Laden. It’s admittedly a guess, but I’m willing to bet not a lot of them care much for the Constitution, either, particularly when they’d like to re-write it to USM’s approval.

And what do you suppose will happen when such a government gets hold of the nukes in that country?

We can get all wrapping up in moralizing arguments about how we should be supporting Democracy and Musharraf is not playing that game. But the bottom line is, out here in the real world, that unless Musharraf wins this one, Democracy doesn’t have much hope, there.

And what of Bhuto? Interesting you ask. Certainly she is a player, here and Musharraf will do well to cut a deal with her. And your question Bruce asking about the military bears on this as well..

The fact is that the 50/50 split I spoke of, also happens to be true within the ranks of the Military there, by what I’ve been reading… and she simply doesn’t have the support of the Military, whereas Musharraf has it… mostly, if grudingly. IN a raw election, Bhuto would win a split election… perhaps 60/40 or something like that… and then be overthown by the AQ operating in the country, and the military wouldn’t lift a finger to stop them, so great is the sympathy for AQ.

I suspect that for whatever faults Musharraf has, he sees all this, and is reacting accordingly. Is it the best move? I’ve no idea. But given the conditions, I’m not willing to condemn it ouright, just now.