The Impact of Castro’s Death

As regards the betting pools that have popped up for when Fidel Castro begins his stay in one of the few places I can think of that warmer than Cuba, I’ll add my comments.
Rumors and indications notwithstanding, there’s no real way to tell whether not the man has kicked the enchilada  until such time as the Cuban government sees fit to advise us all of the fact.  But personally, it’s my view that the Cuban government has every reason not to make that announcement.

Let’s face it, love him or hate him, his personality, and the cult that was built up around it, is the only reason that the Cuban government still stands as such today.

His still wasting air, is the only reason that many of the people within the Cuban government are also wasting air.  My guess is that when he goes, many of his followers will go with him, mostly violently, at the hands of the people that they have oppressed for so long.   When that happens, nearly everything about Cuba will change.

We are talking about the possibility of the long are pressed people of Cuba standing up and taking over the country .  We are talking about the large number of Cuban exiles , joining the fight.  All this bottom lines at the power structure of Cuba as we have known it since the 60’s being laid waste.
For all of this, and more, even assuming the slimeball is gone, we are not going to be officially told about it.

One possibility that I have thought of over the past several days, is that if the anti Castro people get two powerful, we might see his protégé, Hugo Chavez, react with military force. It strikes me that in all the hemisphere, there is probably nobody else that would.  That, of course, is pure speculation on my part, since I have no idea what the state of his military is in.  Then, two, of course, comes the question of whether or not his military would fight in such a situation, given the level of disgust and distrust   the Venezuelan people have been exhibiting toward their government these last six months or so.

The existing power structure in Cuba, may actually be thinking about moving Venezuelan troops in to reinforce their own, prior to making the announcement.  Again, speculation, but it tends to make sense… If we assume that Chavez has that capability.