-AFP- [1] Economists are hastily upgrading their forecasts for the US economy [2] after a series of surprisingly strong reports suggesting the so-called “soft landing” may be over and growth is accelerating.
Over the past week, surprises have come in stronger-than-expected reports on US job creation, the trade balance and retail sales — all key contributors to economic activity.
Lehman Brothers chief US economist Ethan Harris on Friday boosted his forecast for fourth quarter 2006 growth to an annualized rate of 3.3 percent, a leap from the firm’s prior call for just 2.0 percent growth.
“After slowing in November, the economy seems to have regained its stride,” Harris said.
“With the last of the major data in, we are now revising fourth quarter GDP to an above-trend 3.3 percent. A wide range of indicators have been stronger than expected. Most important have been the strong consumption data and the surprising improvement in the trade balance.”
I have to tell you that this sounds to me rather suspiciously like the figures reported, which are now being revised, were unrealistically low so as to make Democrat victory easier in the most recent elections.