Captain Ed over at Captain’s Quarters  links to an article in THE HILL which spells Kerry’s defeat. Mark Mellman, John Kerry’s biggest Pollster says;
“First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.
Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote.
Nor does Mellman stop there.
But I will… I’ll let Ed take it from here.
I will comment, however that when even Kerry’s people are saying this….