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So How Seriously Should We be Taking the Polling As Regards President Bush’s Popularity?

Wherever the President held rallies for [Republican gubernatorial candidate Haley] Barbour and [Republican gubernatorial candidate Ernie] Fletcher, turnout increased well above average:

Kentucky

In Laurel County, turnout increased by 252% over 1999 turnout. This year, 12,721 individuals cast ballots for Governor (34.1%) compared to just 3,604 in 1999 (10.2%). Fletcher received 9,403 votes this year, 2.5 times more than the total number of votes cast 4 years ago.

In McCracken County, turnout increased by 161% over 1999 turnout. This year, 19,850 individuals cast ballots for Governor (44.7%) compared to 1999 where 7,619 individuals cast ballots (17.1%). In McCracken, Fletcher received 11,639 votes on Tuesday — 4,000 votes more than the total number cast 4 years ago.

Statewide, turnout increased almost 20 points from 532,242 (20.4%) in 1999 to 1,077,862 (39.8%) in 2003. An increase of over half a million votes.

Fletcher received 593,048 votes in 2003, more votes than were cast in the 1999 General Election.
Mississippi

In DeSoto County, there were 27,160 votes cast for Governor, an increase of 50% over 1999 turnout (18,710 votes). Haley received 18,177 votes on Tuesday, which is almost the same number as the total votes cast 4 years ago in the county.

In Harrison County, turnout increased by 21% over 1999 turnout (from 36,145 votes cast in 1999 to 43,625 cast in 2003).

I’d say the Democrats are going to be in a world of hurt for a long while to come.